(4/23/2008) The latest Franteractive Electability Survey / Poll shows that for every person who thinks that Hillary is more electable than Obama, twelve people think the other way around.
Electability analysis by Sam Mishra, President, Franteractive
As per our electability related poll interspersed within the John McCain SWOT analysis article, Obama emerges overwhelmingly as the candidate who can beat John McCain come November general elections… in fact his electability is 89% vis-à-vis Hillary's 7.4%. These data are one day old as of the time of writing. Yesterday night (April 22nd), in the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary won convincingly by 9.4%. This might help more super-delegates from fleeing to the Obama camp for a while, but ultimately this dog-fight of a race for the Democratic nomination has to be decided by the Super Delegates, no matter who wins Indiana and North Carolina come May 4th, or the remaining primary contests all the way up to June 7th.
One thing is for sure. The longer Hillary and Obama keep duking it out in these upcoming primaries, the better it will be for McCain come November. When Hillary makes statements equating both herself and McCain to have crossed the commander-in-chief threshold and casting doubts on Obama's candidature / eligibility to be commander-in-chief, it reduces Obama's credibility to be a viable contestant to McCain come November. It also treats with contempt the millions of people who have voted Obama over Hillary, not to mention the millions who have contributed to the Obama campaign.
Anyway, let's take a look at the electability survey results so far:
The numbers above are based on the poll results up until today, but I don't expect much change, since this poll is on the Internet, and so, it is a nationwide opinion from our readers, and not just from Pennsylvania. If you look through the numbers, the following data jumps out...
1. Only 14.29% + 8.57% = 23% of those who took the survey think that McCain can beat Hillary or Obama, the rest think otherwise. This rest is 77%! So, 77% of those polled think McCain can't win, or will not be able to beat Hillary or Obama.
2. Amongst these 77% who think that Obama or Hillary can beat McCain, 68.57% of 77% or (68.57 ÷ 77 × 100%) or 89% think that Obama can beat McCain, as opposed to 5.71% of 77%, or 7.4%, who think that Hillary is the one who can beat McCain. In other words, Obama's electability is 89% vis-à-vis Hillary's 7.4%! So, as per these survey results, Obama is 89 ÷ 7.4 = 12 times more electable than Hillary.
Or to be factual, for every person who thinks that Hillary is more electable than Obama, twelve people think the other way around
If you think the above numbers are outrageous, please feel free to go and take the poll within our McCain SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) article which argued that having Hillary as an opponent was an opportunity for McCain, and having Obama as an opponent was a threat for McCain; because when it was written, that is how things looked. Even today, not much has changed in terms of McCain's chances vis-à-vis Obama or Hillary, as the above electability results show.
In any case, why is Hillary still plugging along? In two words: Super Delegates. She thinks that even though she has less pledged (or elected) delegates, somehow she and hubby Bill Clinton can convince the Super Delegates that Hillary is more electable, she is the one who can beat McCain, and Obama is the one who can't!
That brings us to the frustrating concept of Super Delegates within the Democratic party. So, please take the following poll, before reading on, for I don't want to bias you one more time.
IMHO, Super Delegates are redundant, for it assumes that people are dumb, can make a mistake in selecting the right candidate, and so, let's have some Supermen (and women) who can overturn the mandate. Since there is no such thing in a General Election, why have the concept in the primaries? Just delete the concept, I must say.
If by June 4th, when all the primaries (except Guam) are over, and it is a mathematical certainty that Obama would have had more elected delegates, in the interest of Democracy, the Super Delegates should back him up. By the same token, if by this date Hillary rakes up more elected delegates (the probability is close to zero that she can do this), the Super Delegates will back her up with glee, I am sure!
But does it have to wait until then? Why can't the Super Delegates see that the negative mud-slinging by Hillary and the rebuttals by Obama are only helping McCain's cause! May be these Super Delegates are not Super at all, after all!
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